Why the RAT Changes Everything—Air India 171 Update

New Evidence Shifts Analysis of Tragic Air India 787 Crash

Author

Ark
June 20, 2025

By Captain Steve
June 15, 2025

Two days after the tragic Air India Boeing 787 crash in India, new evidence has emerged that significantly alters the initial analysis of the accident. A sharper version of a previously circulated video, combined with eyewitness testimony and other clues, points strongly toward a dual engine failure as the primary cause. Below, I recap the initial theories, present the new evidence, and explain why I’m now firmly in the dual engine failure camp—though the underlying reason for such a failure remains a mystery.

Initial Theories

In the immediate aftermath, three main theories dominated discussions:

  1. Dual Engine Failure: Attributed to either a bird strike or fuel contamination, causing both engines to fail simultaneously.

  2. Improper Flap Configuration: The pilots failed to set the flaps correctly for takeoff, leaving them up, which prevented the aircraft from generating sufficient lift, leading to a crash.

  3. Premature Flap Retraction: The flaps were set correctly, but the co-pilot mistakenly raised them prematurely after takeoff, causing a loss of lift. This was my initial leaning, as the landing gear remained down throughout the short flight, and there were no visible signs of engine failure (no fire, smoke, or sparks).

The third theory seemed most plausible initially because the landing gear’s position suggested a pilot error involving the wrong handle (flaps instead of gear). However, new evidence has shifted my perspective.

The Game-Changing Evidence

A higher-quality version of a widely circulated video—originally filmed from a rooftop or window—has provided critical insights. Unlike the degraded “video of a video” shown by major news outlets, this original, likely recorded on a smartphone, is sharper and includes clearer audio. Here’s what it reveals:

1. Visual Confirmation: Ram Air Turbine (RAT) Deployment

The video shows a protrusion beneath the aircraft, resembling a “nipple” (for lack of a better term), with a small gray dot below it. This is the RAT—a small, two-bladed propeller deployed automatically on the 787 in response to a massive electrical failure, hydraulic failure, or dual engine failure. The protrusion is the door that opens to release the RAT, and the gray dot is the RAT itself. This visual evidence strongly suggests one of the three conditions triggered its deployment.

2. Audio Evidence: Distinctive RAT Sound

The clearer audio captures a high-pitched, prop-like sound as the aircraft passes by, akin to a single-engine Cessna or a World War II-era plane. This is the RAT spinning at near-supersonic speeds to generate emergency electrical and hydraulic power. The degraded video’s audio, muddied by background chatter, obscured this critical clue. For comparison, a video of a Japan Air 787 landing with a deployed RAT produces an identical sound, reinforcing this finding.

3. Eyewitness Testimony: Survivor’s Account

Remarkably, one survivor from seat 11A, near an emergency exit, walked away from the crash. He reported hearing a “loud bang” and seeing the cabin lights flicker just before the crash. While eyewitness accounts can be unreliable, this aligns with the RAT deployment process, which can produce a bang as it extends and causes a brief electrical transition, flickering the lights. Positioned near the wing spar—the strongest part of the aircraft—he likely survived due to the structural integrity of that area.

4. Possible ATC Communication

Unconfirmed reports suggest the captain issued a Mayday call, stating they were “losing thrust.” If verified, this would be a fourth piece of evidence supporting a dual engine failure. However, I haven’t heard the ATC audio myself, so this remains tentative.

Why Dual Engine Failure?

The RAT’s deployment, confirmed visually and aurally, indicates a catastrophic failure—most likely a dual engine failure, though a massive electrical or hydraulic issue could also trigger it. The aircraft’s behavior—described as “mushing out of the sky”—further supports the loss of thrust. The RAT, designed as a last resort for emergencies at altitude (e.g., providing minimal power for hydraulics and radios during a glide), offers little benefit at low altitudes like 400–500 feet, where the crash occurred. Its presence is primarily evidence of the failure.

This shifts the premature flap retraction theory to second or third place. The improper flap configuration theory remains less likely, as the aircraft achieved initial lift, inconsistent with fully retracted flaps.

What Caused the Engine Failure?

While the evidence points to a dual engine failure, the cause remains elusive. The Aviation Herald’s initial report ruled out a bird strike, noting no dead birds on the runway. They also dismissed dual engine failure and pilot error, but I believe they’re mistaken about the former. Fuel contamination is a possibility, but simultaneous engine failure on a 787—a highly reliable aircraft—is unprecedented and perplexing. The black box data will be critical in uncovering the root cause.

Conclusion

This new evidence—RAT deployment, its distinctive sound, survivor testimony, and potential ATC communication—provides clarity that a dual engine failure likely caused the crash. However, it leaves us back at square one regarding why both engines failed. As we await further data, this tragedy underscores the complexity of aviation accidents and the importance of rigorous investigation.

Stay tuned for updates, and thank you for following along. Now you know.

Captain Steve

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